Scotland Polling Error Analysis
Click the button below to run 1000 simulations of the Scottish Parliament election using randomised vote shares centred around the current polling average. It applies layers of variation by tweaking every party's swing based on local factors, including geographic area, urban/rural characteristics, support for independence in the 2014 referendum and more.
We use the Monte Carlo method to show the uncertainty that's inevitable in election projections and show how even small polling errors and local factors can lead to significantly different outcomes. In many cases the difference between an excellent year for a party and a terrible year is well within a normal polling error.
Click the button below to run the analysis.
The same analysis for Northern Ireland and Wales is also available.
Current Polling Average
Constituency
List
*The vote share for the Green party has been recalculated to account for standing in just 6 seats.
Most simulations fall within 3% of the polling average for each party to simulate historic errors. Each simulation randomly reweights the pollsters and varies based on geographic and demographic factors. For example a party may do better in urban areas which would spike their chances in Glasgow but cost them in Moray, or they could underperform in the south which would reduce their chances in Dumfriesshire but boost them in Aberdeenshire.